The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19

One of the principal ways nations are responding to the COVID-19 pandemic is by locking down portions of their economies to reduce infectious spread. This is expensive in terms of lost jobs, lost economic productivity, and lost freedoms. So it is of interest to ask: What is the optimal intensity with which to lockdown, and how should that intensity vary dynamically over the course of an epidemic? This paper explores such questions with an optimal control model that recognizes the particular risks when infection rates surge beyond the healthcare system's capacity to deliver appropriate care. The analysis shows that four broad strategies emerge, ranging from brief lockdowns that only ``smooth the curve'' to sustained lockdowns that prevent infections from spiking beyond the healthcare system's capacity. Within this model, it can be optimal to have two separate periods of locking down, so returning to a lockdown after initial restrictions have been lifted is not necessarily a sign of failure. Relatively small changes in judgments about how to balance health and economic harms can alter dramatically which strategy prevails. Indeed, there are constellations of parameters for which two or even three of these distinct strategies can all perform equally well for the same set of initial conditions; these correspond to so-called triple Skiba points. The performance of trajectories can be highly nonlinear in the state variables, such that for various times t, the optimal unemployment rate could be low, medium, or high, but not anywhere in between. These complex dynamics emerge naturally from modeling the COVID-19 epidemic and suggest a degree of humility in policy debates. Even people who share a common understanding of the problem's economics and epidemiology can prefer dramatically different policies. Conversely, favoring very different policies is not evident that there are fundamental disagreements. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Automated summary

This paper examines the optimal intensity and dynamic variations of lockdown strategies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic using an optimal control model. It identifies four broad strategies for lockdowns and highlights that small changes in balancing health and economic harms can significantly alter the prevailing strategy. The analysis shows that there can be constellations of parameters where different strategies perform equally well, indicating the complexity and variability in response to the epidemic.