期刊
JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
卷 415, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.125560
关键词
Harmful algal blooms; Virtual Beach; Anatoxin-a; Saxitoxin; Microcystin
资金
- U.S. Geological Survey-National Park Service Water-Quality Partnership Program, USA
- U.S. Geological Survey Environmental Health Program (Toxic Substances Hydrology and Contaminant Biology), USA
This study compared cyanotoxin mixture models to microcystin models, finding that comprehensive models explained more variability. The research demonstrated that cyanotoxin mixture models were able to simulate observations exceeding regulatory guidelines.
Toxic cyanobacterial blooms, often containing multiple toxins, are a serious public health issue. However, there are no known models that predict a cyanotoxin mixture (anatoxin-a, microcystin, saxitoxin). This paper presents two cyanotoxin mixture models (MIX) and compares them to two microcystin (MC) models from data collected in 2016-2017 from three recurring cyanobacterial bloom locations in Kabetogama Lake, Voyageurs National Park (Minnesota, USA). Models include those using near-real-time environmental variables (readily available) and those using additional comprehensive variables (based on laboratory analyses). Comprehensive models (R2 = 0.87 MC; R2 = 0.86 MIX) explained more variability than the environmental models (R2 = 0.58 MC; R2 = 0.57 MIX). Although neither MIX model was a better fit than the MC models, the MIX models produced no false negatives in the calibration dataset, indicating that all observations above regulatory guidelines were simulated by the MIX models. This is the first known use of Virtual Beach software for a cyanotoxin mixture model, and the methods used in this paper may be applicable to other lakes or beaches.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据