Decoupling of provincial energy-related CO2 emissions from economic growth in China and its convergence from 1995 to 2017

Economic development usually means energy demand, which in turn causes carbon emissions. For countries and enterprises, achieving emission reduction targets in the process of economic growth, meaning a decoupling between carbon emissions and economic growth, is the best developing path under low-carbon economy. China has pledged at the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly to achieve carbon neutral by 2060. How challenging is it to meet this commitment while sustain the social-economic development? In this study, we apply the Tapio decoupling model to analyze the decoupling status of provincial carbon emissions from its economic development; and combine the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model with the Cobb-Douglas production function to study the emission driving force, especially from economic perspective. Results show that emissions in most provinces have been weakly decoupled from economic development, and the latter drove emissions mainly via capital investment and total factor productivity. We further decompose the emissions-economy decoupling into the decoupling between CO2 emissions and energy consumption, as well as the decoupling between the energy consumption and economic development. Our results indicate that the emissions-economy decoupling has been primarily depending on the decoupling of economic activities from energy consumption during the study period. Substantial variation exists in provincial emissions and its driving forces, however, the emissions-economy decoupling trend tends to converge as one club, suggesting more or less coherent low-carbon progress across the provinces. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

This study examines the decoupling status of provincial carbon emissions from economic development in China, finding weak decoupling mainly driven by capital investment and total factor productivity. During the study period, emissions-economy decoupling primarily depended on the decoupling of economic activities from energy consumption. While there is substantial variation in provincial emissions and driving forces, the overall trend suggests a convergence towards coherent low-carbon progress.