期刊
ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE
卷 78, 期 3, 页码 821-831出版社
OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsab012
关键词
aquatic farming; EAA; ecosystem management; futures planning; MSP; SDGs
Marine aquaculture faces challenges in sustainable development, with the ecosystem approach and scenario analysis identified as key tools for achieving this. By combining these two methods, it is possible to determine the scale of development goals over time, evaluate the feasibility of desired outcomes, and highlight potential social-ecological conflicts and trade-offs that may be overlooked.
Marine aquaculture holds great promise for meeting increasing demand for healthy protein that is sustainably produced, but reaching necessary production levels will be challenging. The ecosystem approach to aquaculture is a framework for sustainable aquaculture development that prioritizes multiple-stakeholder participation and spatial planning. These types of approaches have been increasingly used to help guide sustainable, persistent, and equitable aquaculture planning, but most countries have difficulties in setting or meeting longer-term development goals. Scenario analysis (SA) for future planning uses similar approaches and can complement holistic methods, such as the ecosystem approach to aquaculture framework, by providing a temporal analogue to the spatially robust design. Here we define the SA approach to planning in aquaculture, outline how SA can benefit aquaculture planning, and review how this tool is already being used. We track the use of planning tools in the 20 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea member nations, with particular attention given to Norway's development goals to 2050. We conclude that employing a combination of an ecosystem framework with scenario analyses may help identify the scale of development aquaculture goals over time, aid in evaluating the feasibility of the desired outcomes, and highlight potential socialecological conflicts and trade-offs that may otherwise be overlooked.
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