Will the urbanization process influence the peak of carbon emissions in the building sector? A dynamic scenario simulation

The accelerating urbanization development has posed great challenges to China's carbon-peaking and carbon-neutral commitments. However, how does the urbanization process impact the peak of future carbon emissions from buildings is still unclear. This study first establishes a comprehensive urbanization framework from three dimensions. Then, a dynamic scenario simulation model is innovatively constructed by combining the extended Kaya identity and Monte Carlo simulation approach to explore future dynamic evolution trajectory, possible peaks and peaking time of China's building carbon emissions from 2000 to 2050, considering the uncertainties of factors. Finally, dynamic sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the contributions of different dimensions of the urbanization. Results show that under the business-as-usual scenario, the rural residential building sector will be the first to reach its energy peak in 2027. Dynamic scenario simulation shows that the building sector will peak at 3.09 (+/- 0.36) Bt CO2 in 2037 (+/- 4). Specifically, the urban residential building sector will will reach the peak at 1.27 (+/- 0.18) Bt CO2 in 2040 (+/- 4), while the rural residential building sector will peak at 0.51 (+/- 0.03) Bt CO2 in 2021 (+/- 4) and the commercial building sector will peak in 2038 (+/- 4) at 1.41 (+/- 0.30) Bt CO2. Dynamic sensitivity analysis indicates that rural-urban migration will exert promoting effect on the peaking time and emission peaks of building carbon emissions through the concomitant effects of the urbanization process, i.e., the economic urbanization and space urbanization. Overall, this study can provide a better insight into the impact of urbanization on carbon emission peak and can support the government to formulate effective building carbon-mitigation strategies to achieve carbon-peaking target and carbon-neutral vision. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

This study investigates the impact of urbanization on China's carbon emissions from buildings through a comprehensive framework and dynamic simulation model. It predicts the peak emissions and trajectories of different building sectors, and finds that rural-urban migration plays a significant role in influencing the peaking time and emission peaks. This research provides valuable insights for the government in formulating effective strategies to achieve carbon peaking and neutrality goals.