Temperature based indicators to develop adaptive responses for crop production in Florida, USA

Crop failure temperatures (CFTs) are critical upper threshold temperatures above which plant growth and development stop. Climate variability with CFTs has an essential impact on agriculture, which leads to a decrease in plant yield to nearly zero. This study innovatively combines data analysis and analysis of published literature to develop causal chains/loops using Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Responses (DPSIR) framework. In data analysis, CFTs trends were estimated from 21 models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the historical (1950-2005) and future scenarios (RCP 8.5, 2006-2100) at a spatial resolution of 0.125 degrees x0.125 degrees over Florida region. From the scenario funnel plots, it is evident that the frequency of number days above CFTs was found to be increasing at the rate of 2 days/year, and maximum mean temperature intensity was found in the range of 0.02 to 0.04 degrees C/year till 21st century. The causal chain and loop help to understand the complex structure and feedback mechanism for CFTs. This also helps in bridging the gap between climate and crop to address the adaptation strategies if the impacts are known. Adaptation strategies from the effects of the crops found to be promising to mitigate the effects of climate on crop and which can be used by the stakeholders and managers for their own use.

Automated summary

Crop failure temperatures (CFTs) are critical upper threshold temperatures for plant growth. Climate variability with CFTs has a significant impact on agriculture, leading to a decrease in plant yield. The study combines data analysis and literature review to develop causal chains/loops, helping to understand the complex structure and feedback mechanism of CFTs.