Neural Network Approach for Predicting Ship Speed and Fuel Consumption

In this paper, simulations of a ship travelling on a given oceanic route were performed by a weather routing system to provide a large realistic navigation data set, which could represent a collection of data obtained on board a ship in operation. This data set was employed to train a neural network computing system in order to predict ship speed and fuel consumption. The model was trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation scheme to establish the relation between the ship speed and the respective propulsion configuration for the existing sea conditions, i.e., the output torque of the main engine, the revolutions per minute of the propulsion shaft, the significant wave height, and the peak period of the waves, together with the relative angle of wave encounter. Additional results were obtained by also using the model to train the relationship between the same inputs used to determine the speed of the ship and the fuel consumption. A sensitivity analysis was performed to analyze the artificial neural network capability to forecast the ship speed and fuel oil consumption without information on the status of the engine (the revolutions per minute and torque) using as inputs only the information of the sea state. The results obtained with the neural network model show very good accuracy both in the prediction of the speed of the vessel and the fuel consumption.

Automated summary

This study utilized a weather routing system to simulate ship navigation and provide a realistic data set for training a neural network system to predict ship speed and fuel consumption accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed the neural network model's capability to predict the ship's speed and fuel consumption with high accuracy using only sea state information as input.