期刊
ECOLOGY LETTERS
卷 19, 期 6, 页码 620-628出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/ele.12595
关键词
Biophysical model; climate change; embryos; hatchlings; heat events; individual-based model; life cycle; lizards; phenology
类别
资金
- National Science Foundation [EF-1065638, EF-1064901]
- Rothschild Post-Doctoral fellowship
- Emerging Frontiers
- Direct For Biological Sciences [1346899] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
As global warming has lengthened the active seasons of many species, we need a framework for predicting how advances in phenology shape the life history and the resulting fitness of organisms. Using an individual-based model, we show how warming differently affects annual cycles of development, growth, reproduction and activity in a group of North American lizards. Populations in cold regions can grow and reproduce more when warming lengthens their active season. However, future warming of currently warm regions advances the reproductive season but reduces the survival of embryos and juveniles. Hence, stressful temperatures during summer can offset predicted gains from extended growth seasons and select for lizards that reproduce after the warm summer months. Understanding these cascading effects of climate change may be crucial to predict shifts in the life history and demography of species.
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