期刊
ECOLOGY LETTERS
卷 19, 期 12, 页码 1429-1438出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/ele.12691
关键词
COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database; comparative demography; damping ratio; elasticity; matrix population model; phylogenetic analysis; population growth rate (lambda); spatially lagged models
类别
资金
- ARC Center of Excellence in Environmental Decisions
- Trinity College Dublin
- Australian Research Council [DE140100505]
- NERC IRF [R/142195-11-1]
- Science Foundation Ireland (SFI) [15/ERCD/2803]
- Marie-Curie Career Integration Grant
- Science Foundation Ireland (SFI) [15/ERCD/2803] Funding Source: Science Foundation Ireland (SFI)
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/M018458/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- NERC [NE/M018458/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Australian Research Council [DE140100505] Funding Source: Australian Research Council
Plant population responses are key to understanding the effects of threats such as climate change and invasions. However, we lack demographic data for most species, and the data we have are often geographically aggregated. We determined to what extent existing data can be extrapolated to predict population performance across larger sets of species and spatial areas. We used 550 matrix models, across 210 species, sourced from the COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database, to model how climate, geographic proximity and phylogeny predicted population performance. Models including only geographic proximity and phylogeny explained 5-40% of the variation in four key metrics of population performance. However, there was poor extrapolation between species and extrapolation was limited to geographic scales smaller than those at which landscape scale threats typically occur. Thus, demographic information should only be extrapolated with caution. Capturing demography at scales relevant to landscape level threats will require more geographically extensive sampling.
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