Arctic and boreal plant species decline at their southern range limits in the Rocky Mountains

Climate change is predicted to cause a decline in warm-margin plant populations, but this hypothesis has rarely been tested. Understanding which species and habitats are most likely to be affected is critical for adaptive management and conservation. We monitored the density of 46 populations representing 28 species of arctic-alpine or boreal plants at the southern margin of their ranges in the Rocky Mountains of Montana, USA, between 1988 and 2014 and analysed population trends and relationships to phylogeny and habitat. Marginal populations declined overall during the past two decades; however, the mean trend for 18 dicot populations was -5.8% per year, but only -0.4% per year for the 28 populations of monocots and pteridophytes. Declines in the size of peripheral populations did not differ significantly among tundra, fen and forest habitats. Results of our study support predicted effects of climate change and suggest that vulnerability may depend on phylogeny or associated anatomical/physiological attributes.