Ozone Variation Trends under Different CMIP6 Scenarios

This study compares and analyzes simulations of ozone under different scenarios by three CMIP6 models (IPSL-CM6A, MRI-ESM2 and CESM-WACCM). Results indicate that as the social vulnerability and anthropogenic radiative forcing is increasing, the change of total column ozone in the tropical stratosphere is not linear. Compared to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 are more favorable for the increase in stratospheric ozone mass in the tropics. Arctic ozone would never recover under the SSP1-2.6 scenario; however, the Antarctica ozone would gradually recover in all scenarios. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the trend of tropical total column ozone is mainly determined by the trend of column ozone in the tropical troposphere. Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, tropospheric ozone concentration will significantly increase; under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, ozone concentration will distinctly increase in the middle and lower troposphere.

Automated summary

This study examines simulations of ozone under different scenarios by three CMIP6 models and finds that the change of total column ozone in the tropical stratosphere is not linear as social vulnerability and anthropogenic radiative forcing increases. Recovery of Arctic ozone is unlikely under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, while Antarctic ozone is expected to gradually recover in all scenarios. The trend of tropical total column ozone is mainly determined by the trend of column ozone in the tropical troposphere under certain scenarios.