Future Changes in the Global and Regional Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperature Based on CMIP6 Models

Estimating future sea level rise (SLR) and sea surface temperature (SST) is essential to implement mitigation and adaptation options within a sustainable development framework. This study estimates regional SLR and SST changes around the Korean peninsula. Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios and nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations are used to estimate the changes in SLR and SST. At the end of the 21st century, global SLR is expected to be 0.28 m (0.17-0.38 m) and 0.65 m (0.52-0.78 m) for SSP 1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Regional change around the Korean peninsula (0.25 m (0.15-0.35 m; SSP1-2.6) and 0.63 m (0.50-0.76 m; SSP5-8.5)) is similar with global SLR. The discrepancy between global and regional changes is distinct in SST warming rather than SLR. For SSP5-8.5, SST around the Korean peninsula projects is to rise from 0.49 degrees C to 0.59 degrees C per decade, which is larger than the global SST trend (0.39 degrees C per decade). Considering this, the difference of regional SST change is related to the local ocean current change, such as the Kuroshio Current. Additionally, ocean thermal expansion and glacier melting are major contributors to SLR, and the contribution rates of glacier melting increase in higher emission scenarios.

Automated summary

This study estimates regional sea level rise and sea surface temperature changes around the Korean peninsula, showing that the regional changes are similar to global trends but with distinct discrepancies in sea surface temperature warming, which are related to local ocean current changes.