Open Data and Machine Learning to Model the Occurrence of Fire in the Ecoregion of Llanos Colombo-Venezolanos

A fire probability map is an important tool for landscape management, providing better identification of areas prone to fires and helping optimize the allocation of limited resources for fire prevention, control, and management. In this study, the random forest machine learning algorithm was applied to model the probability of fire occurrence in the Colombian-Venezuelan plains (llanos) ecoregion in South America. Information on burned areas was collected using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Product MCD64A1 for the period 2015-2019. We also used spatial information of related factors that were grouped into four levels of information: topography, human presence, vegetation, and climate-related variables. The model had an accuracy of 94%, which indicates the performance of the model was excellent. The cartography generated from the model can be used as base information in the context of fire management in the region, to identify areas for prioritizing efforts and attention. The probability of occurrence zoning results indicates that the very low category covers the largest area (28.2%), followed by low (23.2%), very high (17.6%), moderate (17.2%), and high (13.8%).