期刊
JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
卷 12, 期 12, 页码 -出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2019MS002035
关键词
decadal prediction; seasonal prediction; dynamical coupled climate model; CMIP6; initialization
资金
- Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU) [JPMXD0717935457]
- Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan
The present paper presents results of seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions based on a coupled climate model called the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6 (MIROC6) contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). MIROC6 is initialized every year for 1960-2018 by assimilating observed ocean temperature and salinity anomalies and full fields of sea ice concentration and by prescribing atmospheric initial states from reanalysis data. The impacts of updating the system on prediction skill are then evaluated by comparing hindcast experiments between the MIROC6 prediction system and a previous system based on MIROC version 5 (MIROC5). Skill of seasonal prediction is overall improved in association with representation and initialization of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and the Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration in MIROC6. In particular, the QBO is skillfully predicted up to 3 years ahead with a maximum anomaly correlation exceeding r = 0.8. The prediction skill for the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is also enhanced, but the prediction still suffers from model's inherent errors. On decadal timescales, MIROC6 has a larger fraction of areas of the globe with better surface temperature skill at all lead times than MIROC5, and it has predictive skill in the annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and the Pacific. In particular, MIROC6 hindcasts at 2-5 years lead time are able to capture the spatial structure of SST changes in the North Pacific and the eastern tropical Pacific associated with the 1970s regime shift better than MIROC5 hindcasts.
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