Tracking the recent dynamics of Mt. Vesuvius from joint investigations of ground deformation, seismicity and geofluid circulation

We reconstruct the composite dynamics of Mt. Vesuvius volcano in the period 2012-2019 from the study of ground deformation, seismicity, and geofluid (groundwater and fumarolic fluids) circulation and recognize complex spatio-temporal variations in these observables at medium (years) and short (months) time-scales. We interpret the observed patterns as the combined effect of structural changes affecting the volcanic edifice and variations of the dynamics of the hydrothermal system. In particular, we identify a change in the activity state of Mt. Vesuvius. After the activity reached minimum levels in 2014, the centroid of the surface manifestations migrated towards the SE. Episodic variations of co-seismic and aseismic deformation and fluid release, if analysed separately, would likely have been interpreted as pseudo-random oscillations of the background geophysical and geochemical signals. When organised in a comprehensive, multiparametric fashion, they shed light on the evolution of the volcano in 4D (x,y,z, time) space. These inferences play a crucial role in the formulation of civil protection scenarios for Mt. Vesuvius, a high risk, densely urbanized volcanic area which has never experienced unrest episodes in the modern era of instrumental volcanology.

Automated summary

The study reveals complex spatio-temporal variations of Mt. Vesuvius volcano from 2012 to 2019, including changes in ground deformation, seismicity, and geofluid circulation. These variations indicate changes in volcanic activity and shed light on the volcano's evolution in 4D space. These inferences play a crucial role in civil protection scenarios for Mt. Vesuvius.