Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply

Renewable energy resources, which depend on climate, may be susceptible to future climate change. Here we use climate and integrated assessment models to estimate this effect on key renewables. Future potential and costs are quantified across two warming scenarios for eight technologies: utility-scale and rooftop photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, onshore and offshore wind energy, first-generation and lignocellulosic bioenergy, and hydropower. The generated cost-supply curves are then used to estimate energy system impacts. In a baseline warming scenario, the largest impact is increased availability of bioenergy, though this depends on the strength of CO2 fertilization. Impacts on hydropower and wind energy are uncertain, with declines in some regions and increases in others, and impacts on solar power are minor. In a future mitigation scenario, these impacts are smaller, but the energy system response is similar to that in the baseline scenario given a larger reliance of the mitigation scenario on renewables.

Automated summary

Renewable energy resources, which are dependent on climate conditions, may face potential impacts from future climate change. The study quantifies the effects of climate change on key renewables across different warming scenarios and technology types, with bioenergy showing the largest impact in a baseline warming scenario. The impacts on hydropower and wind energy are uncertain, while solar power is minimally affected, and in a future mitigation scenario, the impacts are smaller due to a larger reliance on renewables in the energy system response.