期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 117, 期 50, 页码 31969-31978出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2009003117
关键词
adaptation; fluctuating environment; fitness landscape; meta-analysis; phenotypic plasticity
资金
- European Research Council (ERC) [678140-FluctEvol]
- Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers - Observatoire de REcherche Montpellierain de l'Environnement (OSU-OREME)
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council [BB/L006081/1]
- ERC [AdG250164]
- UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) [NE/K006274/1, NE/S010335/1]
- National Science Foundation [DEB-0089473]
- NERC UK
- Leverhulme Trust UK
- Marsden Fund New Zealand
- Hihi Conservation Charitable Trust
- UK NERC
- NERC, a Marie Sklodowska-Curie Action, and Volkswagenstiftung
- NSERC of Canada
- Ministry of Economy and Competitivity, Spanish Research Council [CGL-2016-79568-C33-P]
- Research Council of Norway through its Centers for Excellence funding scheme [223257]
- Australian Research Council
- Swedish Research Council VR
- NERC [NE/S010335/1, NE/F005725/1, NE/D011744/1, NE/K006274/1, NE/R001456/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/R001456/1] Funding Source: researchfish
Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and auto-correlation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.
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