期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 117, 期 52, 页码 33334-33344出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2013311117
关键词
tundra shrubs; sea ice; Arctic; shrub rings; divergence
资金
- Polish-US Fulbright Commission
- Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education program MOBILNOSC PLUS [1072/MOB/2013/0, N306 009139]
- EU-F7P INTERACT [262693]
- Scientific Exchange Program Sciex [09.045]
- NSF [OPP-1418123, 1504141, OPP-1108425, OPP-1107381, OPP-1525636]
- UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) [IRF NE/L011859/1]
- Canada 150 Research Chairs Program
- UK NERC [NE/M016323/1]
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC)
- Canadian Centennial Scholarship Fund
- Academy of Finland [256991]
- European Commission Research and Innovation Action [869471]
- Joint Programming Initiative Connecting Climate Knowledge for Europe [291581]
- Northern communities, NSERC
- ArcticNet
- Polar Continental Shelf Program
- Fonds de Recherche du Quebec - Nature et Technologies
- Danish National Research Foundation grant Center for Permafrost [DNRF100]
- NSERC
- Northern Scientific Training Program
- UArctic Research Chairship
- Arctic Observing Network
- NERC [NE/L011859/1, NE/M016323/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP) [1504141] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is declining at an accelerating rate with a wide range of ecological consequences. However, determining sea ice effects on tundra vegetation remains a challenge. In this study, we examined the universality or lack thereof in tundra shrub growth responses to changes in SIE and summer climate across the Pan-Arctic, taking advantage of 23 tundra shrub-ring chronologies from 19 widely distributed sites (56 degrees N to 83 degrees N). We show a clear divergence in shrub growth responses to SIE that began in the mid-1990s, with 39% of the chronologies showing declines and 57% showing increases in radial growth (decreasers and increasers, respectively). Structural equation models revealed that declining SIE was associated with rising air temperature and precipitation for increasers and with increasingly dry conditions for decreasers. Decreasers tended to be from areas of the Arctic with lower summer precipitation and their growth decline was related to decreases in the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Our findings suggest that moisture limitation, associated with declining SIE, might inhibit the positive effects of warming on shrub growth over a considerable part of the terrestrial Arctic, thereby complicating predictions of vegetation change and future tundra productivity.
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