Effectiveness of China's provincial industrial carbon emission reduction and optimization of carbon emission reduction paths in lagging regions: Efficiency-cost analysis

Accurately assessing the effectiveness of industrial carbon emission reduction in each province and optimizing the emission reduction path have important practical significance for China's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) emission reduction achievement targets. This study first evaluates the industry's emission reduction effects across 30 provinces of China. Then, the emission reduction paths of lagging regions, which fail to meet the 2030 industrial carbon emission reduction target, are optimized based on the two-dimensional perspective of carbon emission efficiency and emission reduction cost. This study found that (1) China has exceeded its 2020 industrial carbon emission reduction target. There are 9 potential lagging regions that failed to meet their 2020 targets, (2) if the current emission reduction rate is maintained, China is capable of exceeding its 2030 industrial carbon emission reduction target, but there are still 11 lagging regions, (3) there are clear differences in carbon emission efficiency and shadow price among the lagging regions, and (4) under the premise of ensuring feasibility and fairness, the three provinces of Liaoning, Guangxi, and Shaanxi can set strict emission reduction targets, while other lagging regions can set flexible targets.