Climate Model Teleconnection Patterns Govern the Nino-3.4 Response to Early Nineteenth-Century Volcanism in Coral-Based Data Assimilation Reconstructions

Scientific understanding of low-frequency tropical Pacific variability, especially responses to perturbations in radiative forcing, suffers from short observational records, sparse proxy networks, and bias in model simulations. Here, we combine the strengths of proxies and models through coral-based paleoclimate data assimilation. We combine coral archives (delta O-1.8, Sr/Ca) with the dynamics, spatial teleconnections, and intervariable relationships of the CMIP5/PMIP3 Past1.000 experiments using the Last Millennium Reanalysis data assimilation framework. This analysis creates skillful reconstructions of tropical Pacific temperatures over the observational era. However, during the period of intense volcanism in the early nineteenth century, southwestern Pacific corals produce El Nirio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reconstructions that are of opposite sign from those from eastern Pacific corals and tree ring records. We systematically evaluate the source of this discrepancy using 1) single-proxy experiments, 2) varied proxy system models (PSMs), and 3) diverse covariance patterns from the Past1.000 simulations. We find that individual proxy records and coral PSMs do not significantly contribute to the discrepancy. However, following major eruptions, the southwestern Pacific corals locally record more persistent cold anomalies than found in the Past1000 experiments and canonical ENSO teleconnections to the southwest Pacific strongly control the reconstruction response. Furthermore, using covariance patterns independent of ENSO yields reconstructions consistent with coral archives across the Pacific. These results show that model bias can strongly affect how proxy information is processed in paleoclimate data assimilation. As we illustrate here, model bias influences the magnitude and persistence of the response of the tropical Pacific to volcanic eruptions.

Automated summary

This study combines coral archives with models to reconstruct the temperature changes in the tropical Pacific. It finds discrepancies in coral records between the southwestern Pacific and the eastern Pacific during a period of frequent volcanic activity in the early nineteenth century.