A novel validated model for the prediction of insulin therapy initiation and adverse perinatal outcomes in women with gestational diabetes mellitus

Aims/hypothesis Identifying women with gestational diabetes mellitus who are more likely to require insulin therapy vs medical nutrition therapy (MNT) alone would allow risk stratification and early triage to be incorporated into risk-based models of care. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a model to predict therapy type (MNT or MNT plus insulin [MNT+I]) for women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Methods Analysis was performed of de-identified prospectively collected data (1992-2015) from women diagnosed with GDM by criteria in place since 1991 and formally adopted and promulgated as part of the more detailed 1998 Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society management guidelines. Clinically relevant variables predictive of insulin therapy by univariate analysis were dichotomised and included in a multivariable regression model. The model was tested in a separate clinic population. Results In 3317 women, seven dichotomised significant independent predictors of insulin therapy were maternal age >30 years, family history of diabetes, pre-pregnancy obesity (BMI >= 30 kg/m(2)), prior GDM, early diagnosis of GDM (<24 weeks gestation), fasting venous blood glucose level (>= 5.3 mmol/l) and HbA(1c) at GDM diagnosis >= 5.5% (>= 37 mmol/mol). The requirement for MNT+I could be estimated according to the number of predictors present: 85.7-93.1% of women with 6-7 predictors required MNT+I compared with 9.3-14.7% of women with 0-1 predictors. This model predicted the likelihood of several adverse outcomes, including Caesarean delivery, early delivery, large for gestational age and an abnormal postpartum OGTT. The model was validated in a separate clinic population. Conclusions/interpretation This validated model has been shown to predict therapy type and the likelihood of several adverse perinatal outcomes in women with GDM.