Expansion of Shishper Glacier lake and recent glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF), Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

Shishper lake is an ice-dammed lake in northern Pakistan that has drained twice within one (1) year. The parameters evaluated in this paper are the lake's area, volume, peak discharge, and its outburst events using various satellite images from November 2018 to June 2020. Based on satellite imagery and empirical approaches, the lake formed in November 2018 and reached a maximum of 0.34 km(2) till its first breach that occurred on 22 June 2019. Since June 2019, the lake drained till September 2019. After that, the flow was blocked again, and the lake expanded to an area of 0.27 km(2) till its second outburst event that happened on May 29, 2020. Eight cross-sectional profiles of Hassanabad ravine are generated based on peak discharge in the lake's rapid outburst. The results indicate that, the peak discharge for both 2019 and 2020 was more than 4500 m(3) s(-1). Delineation of downstream Hassanabad ravine shows that more than 1000 buildings and 2000+ population is prone to flood. However, the lake drain twice steadily, but it has a high potential to cause severe damages if it bursts abruptly.

Automated summary

Shishper Lake in northern Pakistan is an ice-dammed lake that experienced two outburst events in June 2019 and May 2020. The peak discharge exceeded 4500 cubic meters per second, posing a significant threat to over 1000 buildings and 2000+ people in the downstream Hassanabad ravine.