Hydrogen Storage for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles: Expert Elicitation and a Levelized Cost of Driving Model

A cost-effective and compact hydrogen storage system could advance fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Todays commercial FCEVs incorporate storage that is projected to be heavier, larger, and costlier than targets set by the U.S. Driving Research and Innovation for Vehicle efficiency and Energy sustainability Partnership (U.S. DRIVE). To inform research and development (R&D), we elicited 31 experts assessments of expected future costs and capacities of storage systems. Experts suggested that systems would approach U.S. DRIVEs ultimate capacity targets but fall short of cost targets at a high production volume. The 2035 and 2050 median costs anticipated by experts were $13.5 and $10.53/kWh(H2), gravimetric capacities of 5.2 and 5.6 wt %, and volumetric capacities of 0.93 and 1.33 kWh(H2)/L, respectively. To meet U.S. DRIVEs targets, experts recommended allocating the majority of government hydrogen storage R&D funding to materials development. Furthermore, we incorporated experts cost assessments into a levelized cost of driving model. Given technical and fuel price uncertainty, FCEV costs ranged from $0.38 to $0.45/mile ($0.24-$0.28/km) in 2020, $0.30 to $0.33/mile ($0.19-$0.21/km) in 2035-2050, and $0.27 to $0.31/mile ($0.17-$0.19/km) in 2050. Depending on fuel, electricity, and battery prices, our findings suggest that FCEVs could compete with conventional and alternative fuel vehicles by 2035.

Automated summary

Experts' assessments on the future costs and capacities of hydrogen storage systems indicate that while systems are expected to approach target capacities, there may be shortcomings in cost. It is recommended to increase research funding for materials development, and it is believed that by 2035, FCEVs will be able to compete with traditional and alternative fuel vehicles.