期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 16, 期 4, 页码 -出版社
IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d
关键词
Arctic; jet stream; polar vortex; climate change; extreme weather; sea ice; Arctic amplification
资金
- NOAA Arctic Research Program
- US National Science Foundation [AGS-1657748, PLR-1901352]
- University of Alaska Fairbanks Experimental Arctic Prediction Initiative
- KOPRI [PE21010]
- project 'Korea-Arctic Ocean Observing System (K-AOOS), KOPRI - MOF, Korea [20160245]
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth MA
- U.S. Department of Energy [DE-SC0020640]
- IASC
- Academy of Finland [317999]
- Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM
- project SynopSys - German Federal Ministry for Education and Research [03F0872A]
- ArCS/ArCSII project
- Belmont Forum InterDec project
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA [NA15OAR4320063, 2020-1119]
- Korea Polar Research Institute of Marine Research Placement (KOPRI) [PE21010] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
- National Research Council for Economics, Humanities & Social Sciences, Republic of Korea [20160245] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment contribute to anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes, but uncertainties in the atmosphere's chaotic nature and internal atmospheric dynamics obscure direct causes and effects. Reduced sea ice coverage in different Arctic regions can lead to various downstream weather impacts in different seasons.
Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by a rapidly warming Arctic contributes to weather events through changing surface heat fluxes and large-scale temperature and pressure gradients. But internal shifts in atmospheric dynamics-the variability of the location, strength, and character of the jet stream, blocking, and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)-obscure the direct causes and effects. It is important to understand these associated processes to differentiate Arctic-forced variability from natural variability. For example in early winter, reduced Barents/Kara Seas sea-ice coverage may reinforce existing atmospheric teleconnections between the North Atlantic/Arctic and central Asia, and affect downstream weather in East Asia. Reduced sea ice in the Chukchi Sea can amplify atmospheric ridging of high pressure near Alaska, influencing downstream weather across North America. In late winter southward displacement of the SPV, coupled to the troposphere, leads to weather extremes in Eurasia and North America. Combined tropical and sea ice conditions can modulate the variability of the SPV. Observational evidence for Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages continues to accumulate, along with understanding of connections with pre-existing climate states. Relative to natural atmospheric variability, sea-ice loss alone has played a secondary role in Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages; the full influence of Arctic amplification remains uncertain.
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