The near-optimal feasible space of a renewable power system model

Models for long-term investment planning of the power system typically return a single optimal solution per set of cost assumptions. However, typically there are many near-optimal alternatives that stand out due to other attractive properties like social acceptance. Understanding features that persist across many cost-efficient alternatives enhances policy advice and acknowledges structural model uncertainties. We apply the modeling-to generate-alternatives (MGA) methodology to systematically explore the near-optimal feasible space of a completely renewable European electricity system model. While accounting for complex spatio-temporal patterns, we allow simultaneous capacity expansion of generation, storage and transmission infrastructure subject to linearized multi-period optimal power flow. Many similarly costly, but technologically diverse solutions exist. Already a cost deviation of 0.5% offers a large range of possible investments. However, either offshore or onshore wind energy along with some hydrogen storage and transmission network reinforcement appear essential to keep costs within 10% of the optimum.

Automated summary

Models for long-term investment planning in the power system typically return a single optimal solution based on cost assumptions, but there are often many near-optimal alternatives. Understanding common features across cost-effective alternatives can enhance policy advice and acknowledge uncertainties in the model structure.