Modeling habitat suitability and spread dynamics of two invasive rose species in protected areas of Mendoza, Argentina

Biological invasions are a main threat to biodiversity and natural resources, which calls for studies that identify the regions that present the greatest invasion risks. We assessed the potential distribution of two non-native rose species, Rosa canina and Rosa rubiginosa, in mountain environments in mid-western Argentina, using species distribution models and dynamic simulations. We first fitted the model for one protected area, Villavicencio Nature Reserve, and then we made predictions on the distribution of these species for other protected areas in the same region, where the presence of these species was observed but where there are no systematic surveys on their distribution. We also modeled the invasion dynamics of these species based on habitat suitability, considering the dispersal distance and the growth rate of the invaded area. High and very high suitability sites were detected in all the protected areas studied, suggesting high invasion risk in these protected areas. Our simulations of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the rose invasion in Villavicencio indicated that the spread depends strongly on the average seed dispersal distance, that the spread has been gradual since the rose introduction into the protected area, and that 150 years after the introduction even the areas identified as having low suitability are expected to have been invaded. This is the first study of this type for the region, where these invasive rose species are a serious problem. Taken together, our results may be useful to identify areas vulnerable to invasion and thus help generate effective preventive, monitoring, and control practices.