期刊
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
卷 35, 期 4, 页码 1299-1308出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13681
关键词
biodiversity; climate change; decision support; Marxan; optimization; probability; protected areas; simulated annealing; spatial conservation prioritization; species distribution modeling
资金
- Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions
- National Environmental Research Program's Environmental Decisions Hub
- Australian Research Council [DP110102153]
- FCT, Foundation for Science and Technology [CEECIND/01464/2017]
- Environment and Climate Change Canada
Marxan with Probability is a modified version of the original Marxan that explicitly considers 4 types of uncertainty, providing guidance for protected area design. Different types of uncertainty can help maximize the representation of features and minimize the likelihood of species or habitats being lost or degraded.
Marxan is the most common decision-support tool used to inform the design of protected-area systems. The original version of Marxan does not consider risk and uncertainty associated with threatening processes affecting protected areas, including uncertainty about the location and condition of species' populations and habitats now and in the future. We described and examined the functionality of a modified version of Marxan, Marxan with Probability. This software explicitly considers 4 types of uncertainty: probability that a feature exists in a particular place (estimated based on species distribution models or spatially explicit population models); probability that features in a site will be lost in the future due to a threatening process, such as climate change, natural catastrophes, and uncontrolled human interventions; probability that a feature will exist in the future due to natural successional processes, such as a fire or flood; and probability the feature exists but has been degraded by threatening processes, such as overfishing or pollution, and thus cannot contribute to conservation goals. We summarized the results of 5 studies that illustrate how each type of uncertainty can be used to inform protected area design. If there were uncertainty in species or habitat distribution, users could maximize the chance that these features were represented by including uncertainty using Marxan with Probability. Similarly, if threatening processes were considered, users minimized the chance that species or habitats were lost or degraded by using Marxan with Probability. Marxan with Probability opens up substantial new avenues for systematic conservation planning research and application by agencies.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据