Cost-utility analysis of a decade of liver screening for metastases using the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online (LUMPO)

This paper outlines a method for cost-utility analysis of liver screening for metastases in patients with posterior uveal melanoma (UM). A semiparametric model of the cumulative incidence of onset of liver metastases was fitted to a retrospective data set of 615 subjects with clinical follow-up with respect to liver surveillance imaging and outcome. The model was internally validated via bootstrap resampling in terms of its discrimination and calibration performance. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were derived at different time points. The discrimination performances are consistent across time. The area under the ROC curve at 5 years post treatment was 0.85 [95% CI: 0.81-0.88]. A goodness-of-fit test gives chi(2)(10) = 5.3, p = 0.9 demonstrating no evidence against the null hypothesis of zero difference between observed and expected onset of metastatic events. Results showed that at 80% sensitivity, 87% of UM patients will avoid unnecessary radiological scans. This provides potential cost savings of between 46,000 pound and 97,000 pound per year to the National Health Service assuming 600 new cases per year.

Automated summary

This study presents a cost-utility analysis method for liver screening in UM patients, validated through data analysis. Results demonstrate the potential cost savings and effectiveness of the method in avoiding unnecessary medical scans.