Projecting the Competition between Energy-Storage Technologies in the Electricity Sector

Low-cost electricity-storage technologies (ESTs) enable rapid decarbonization of energy systems. However, current EST cost estimates lack meaningful models to assess alternative market and technology scenarios. Here, we project the competition between six ESTs until 2030 and derive cost benchmarks. To this end, a system-dynamic simulation model operationalizes technology costs using component-based experience curves with cost floors for battery materials. We find that lithium-ion batteries are likely to outcompete alternative ESTs by 2030 across applications and largely independent of selected scenarios. This dominance can pose risks associated with technological lock-in. We, therefore, analyze different policy options and contend that it seems most promising to combine: (1) the support for development and commercialization of breakthrough storage concepts and (2) piggybacking on the strong improvement dynamics in lithium-ion batteries by fostering technology and knowledge spillovers that benefit the development of alternative active materials; battery designs; and adjacent, non-lithium-based technologies.