Magnetic resonance morphologic features predict progression of incidental pancreatic cystic lesions during follow-up

PURPOSE We aimed to evaluate which morphologic features on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) could predict the progression of pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) that are suitable for follow-up. METHODS A total of 2176 MRI findings of PCLs were retrospectively reviewed between January 2009 and December 2016. The study population was composed of 223 patients. Clinical data and morphologic features of PCLs were recorded. We divided the individuals into two sub-groups according to the final features on MRI. Univariable and multivariable regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for progression of PCLs. RESULTS A total of 84 PCLs (37.7%) progressed during follow-up, while 139 PCLs (62.3%) were stable. Age (odds ratio [OR], 1.042; P = 0.017), number of lesions (OR, 0.491; P = 0.048), communication to pancreatic duct (PD) (OR, 2.425; P = 0.007) and presence of septa (OR, 6.105; P < 0.001) were significant independent factors for progression of PCLs. Among 84 lesions that progressed, 23 lesions (27.4%) increased to = 30 mm in diameter or showed worrisome imaging features at the end of follow-up that needed clinical intervention. The initial size and communication to PD were independent factors for progression of PCLs necessitating clinical intervention (P < 0.001 and P = 0.011, respectively). CONCLUSION Age, number of the lesions, communication to PD and presence of septa were independent risk factors for the progression of PCLs, and the initial size and communication to PD could potentially predict PCLs needing clinical interventions.