Influence of future climate changes scenarios on the feasibility of the adaptive comfort model in Japan

Adaptive comfort models have emerged as a sustainable way of providing comfort in connection with local climate. Additionally, climate change has posed an additional challenge. In previous studies, the authors clarified how climate change would affect the feasibility of the adaptive comfort model at a worldwide scale, but local considerations for some countries remained unsolved. This study presents the first comprehensive research on the applicability of the adaptive comfort model in Japan not only for current, but also for future scenarios considering the climate change. Remarkable differences across Japanese regions were found, especially between the Northern underpopulated regions of Hokkaido and Tohoku and the cities that belong to the Taiheiyo Belt. In general, the adaptive comfort model will find application both in current and future scenarios, but natural ventilation will not play an important role. Special attention should be drawn to the potentials saving of cooling degrees that can be achieved if adaptive setpoint temperatures become commonplace in the future in the Kanto region. These results pave the way for the consideration of the adaptive comfort model as a resilient strategy to adapt to the future changes in climate scenarios for the building industry.