Flood susceptibility modelling using advanced ensemble machine learning models

Floods are one of nature's most destructive disasters because of the immense damage to land, buildings, and human fatalities. It is difficult to forecast the areas that are vulnerable to flash flooding due to the dynamic and complex nature of the flash floods. Therefore, earlier identification of flash flood susceptible sites can be performed using advanced machine learning models for managing flood disasters. In this study, we applied and assessed two new hybrid ensemble models, namely Dagging and Random Subspace (RS) coupled with Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) which are the other three state of-the-art machine learning models for modelling flood susceptibility maps at the Teesta River basin, the northern region of Bangladesh. The application of thesemodels includes twelve flood influencing factorswith 413 current and former flooding points, which were transferred in a GIS environment. The information gain ratio, the multicollinearity diagnostics tests were employed to determine the association between the occurrences and flood influential factors. For the validation and the comparison of these models, for the ability to predict the statistical appraisal measures such as Freidman, Wilcoxon signed-rank, and t-paired tests and Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) were employed. The value of the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of ROC was above 0.80 for all models. For flood susceptibility modelling, the Dagging model performs superior, followed by RF, the ANN, the SVM, and the RS, then the several benchmark models. The approach and solution-oriented outcomes outlined in this paper will assist state and local authorities as well as policy makers in reducing flood-related threats and will also assist in the implementation of effective mitigation strategies to mitigate future damage. (C) 2021 China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.

Automated summary

This study applied and assessed two new hybrid ensemble models, Dagging and Random Subspace (RS) coupled with Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) for modeling flood susceptibility maps at the Teesta River basin in Bangladesh. The models performed well in predicting flood occurrences and could help in reducing flood-related threats and implementing effective mitigation strategies in the future. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) of ROC was above 0.80 for all models, with the Dagging model showing superior performance compared to RF, ANN, SVM, RS, and benchmark models.