期刊
出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100426
关键词
Phosphorus; Fertilizers; System dynamics modelling; Population growth; Food security; Regional
资金
- European Commission (H2020-MSCA ITN-2015) [675153]
- Stockholm University
- Swedish Society for Anthropology and Geography [SSAG scholarship 2020]
Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades.
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