Resistance, resilience, and vulnerability of social-ecological systems to hurricanes in Puerto Rico

Subject to hurricane disturbance for millennia, natural ecosystems of Puerto Rico exhibit clear patterns of resistance (e.g., many tree species have little immediate storm-related mortality) and resilience (e.g., leaf litterfall and stream chemistry returned to pre-hurricane levels in as little as five years). Contemporaneous studies of near-shore areas also suggested no long-term impacts of hurricanes; however, anthropogenic effects (coral bleaching, sedimentation) dominate the long-term condition of marine systems in Puerto Rico, many of which have slowly evolved into novel ecosystems. A key characteristic of novel marine ecosystems is their long-term loss of benefits and resilience, coupled to declining biodiversity and loss of structural or functional redundancy, signaling increased vulnerability to subsequent hurricanes. Human systems are also strongly affected by cyclonic storms, as evidenced by the recent impacts of Hurricanes Irma and Maria in the Caribbean. The lack of short-term recovery from disturbance by coral reef ecosystems, coupled with an increasing recurrence of anthropogenic impacts, increasing hurricane frequency or severity, and sea-level rise, may have irreversible long-term socioeconomic consequences for coastal social-ecological systems and for community livelihoods. A comprehensive social-ecological understanding of hurricane effects in Puerto Rico is lacking in part because hurricane effects on human populations are not comprehensively followed. Although some studies suggest a path forward, finding effective methods to link measurements of storm intensity to the diverse components of tropical social-ecological systems remains a challenge.