A Model-Based Volume Estimator that Accounts for Both Land Cover Misclassification and Model Prediction Uncertainty

Forest/non-forest and forest species maps are often used by forest inventory programs in the forest estimation process. For example, some inventory programs establish field plots only on lands corresponding to the forest portion of a forest/non-forest map and use species-specific area estimates obtained from those maps to support the estimation of species-specific volume (V) totals. Despite the general use of these maps, the effects of their uncertainties are commonly ignored with the result that estimates might be unreliable. The goal of this study is to estimate the effects of the uncertainty of forest species maps used in the sampling and estimation processes. Random forest (RF) per-pixel predictions were used with model-based inference to estimate V per unit area for the six main forest species of La Rioja, Spain. RF models for predicting V were constructed using field plot information from the Spanish National Forest Inventory and airborne laser scanning data. To limit the prediction of V to pixels classified as one of the main forest species assessed, a forest species map was constructed using Landsat and auxiliary information. Bootstrapping techniques were implemented to estimate the total uncertainty of the V estimates and accommodated both the effects of uncertainty in the Landsat forest species map and the effects of plot-to-plot sampling variability on training data used to construct the RF V models. Standard errors of species-specific total V estimates increased from 2-9% to 3-22% when the effects of map uncertainty were incorporated into the uncertainty assessment. The workflow achieved satisfactory results and revealed that the effects of map uncertainty are not negligible, especially for open-grown and less frequently occurring forest species for which greater variability was evident in the mapping and estimation process. The effects of forest map uncertainty are greater for species-specific area estimation than for the selection of field plots used to calibrate the RF model. Additional research to generalize the conclusions beyond Mediterranean to other forest environments is recommended.