Prognostic and Predictive Impact of Circulating Tumor DNA in Patients with Advanced Cancers Treated with Immune Checkpoint Blockade

The utility of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) as a biomarker in patients with advanced cancers receiving immunotherapy is uncertain. We therefore analyzed pretreatment (n = 978) and on-treatment (n = 171) ctDNA samples across 16 advanced-stage tumor types from three phase I/II trials of durvalumab (+/- the anti-CTLA4 therapy tremelimumab). Higher pretreatment variant allele frequencies (VAF) were associated with poorer overall survival (OS) and other known prognostic factors, but not objective response, suggesting a prognostic role for patient outcomes. On-treatment reductions in VAF and lower on-treatment VAF were independently associated with longer progression-free survival and OS and increased objective response rate, but not prognostic variables, suggesting that on-treatment ctDNA dynamics are predictive of benefit from immune checkpoint blockade. Accordingly, we propose a concept of molecular response using ctDNA, incorporating both pretreatment and on-treatment VAF, that predicted long-term survival similarly to initial radiologic response while also permitting early differentiation of responders among patients with initially radiologically stable disease. SIGNIFICANCE: In a pan-cancer analysis of immune checkpoint blockade, pretreatment ctDNA levels appeared prognostic and on-treatment dynamics predictive. A molecular response metric identified long-term responders and adjudicated benefit among patients with initially radiologically stable disease. Changes in ctDNA may be more dynamic than radiographic changes and could complement existing trial endpoints.