4.6 Article

Mechanical transmission of African swine fever virus byStomoxys calcitrans: Insights from a mechanistic model

期刊

TRANSBOUNDARY AND EMERGING DISEASES
卷 68, 期 3, 页码 1541-1549

出版社

WILEY-HINDAWI
DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13824

关键词

ASF; control; modelling; pig; stable fly; transmission; vector

向作者/读者索取更多资源

Stable flies may play a minor role in the spread of ASFV at low abundances, but could be responsible for a significant proportion of transmission events at higher abundances, potentially reducing time to pig mortality. The relative contribution of stable flies is strongly influenced by factors like blood volume regurgitated and infectious dose for pigs.
African swine fever (ASF) represents a global threat with huge economic consequences for the swine industry. Even though direct contact is likely to be the main transmission route from infected to susceptible hosts, recent epidemiological investigations have raised questions regarding the role of haematophagous arthropods, in particular the stable fly (Stomoxys calcitrans). In this study, we developed a mechanistic vector-borne transmission model for ASF virus (ASFV) within an outdoor domestic pig farm in order to assess the relative contribution of stable flies to the spread of the virus. The model was fitted to the ecology of the vector, its blood-feeding behaviour and pig-to-pig transmission dynamic. Model outputs suggested that in a context of low abundance (<5 flies per pig), stable flies would play a minor role in the spread of ASFV, as they are expected to be responsible for around 10% of transmission events. However, with abundances of 20 and 50 stable flies per pig, the vector-borne transmission would likely be responsible for almost 30% and 50% of transmission events, respectively. In these situations, time to reach a pig mortality of 10% would be reduced by around 26% and 40%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis emphasized that the expected relative contribution of stable flies was strongly dependent on the volume of blood they regurgitated and the infectious dose for pigs. This study identified crucial knowledge gaps that need to be filled in order to assess more precisely the potential contribution of stable flies to the spread of ASFV, including a quantitative description of the populations of haematophagous arthropods that could be found in pig farms, a better understanding of blood-feeding behaviours of stable flies and the quantification of the probability that stable flies partially fed with infectious blood transmit the virus to a susceptible pig during a subsequent blood-feeding attempt.

作者

我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。

评论

主要评分

4.6
评分不足

次要评分

新颖性
-
重要性
-
科学严谨性
-
评价这篇论文

推荐

暂无数据
暂无数据