Assessment of domino effects in the coal gasification process using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and Bayesian Network

Domino effects in process facilities can lead to catastrophic consequences. Many previous models devoted to assessing domino effects, but the influence of the combination of heat radiation, overpressure and fragment on the escalation is not considered. In addition, although the quantity of dangerous substances stored in the affected unit has a non-negligible effect on the propagation of domino effects, their inclusion in the modeling of domino effects has hardly been taken into account. To address these challenges, in this work, using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), the escalation of domino effects under multiple physical factors is assessed, while considering other factors in varying degrees such as meteorological, mitigation measures and the affected units. Finally, the conditional probability table (CPT) in Bayesian networks (BNs) is updated by the FAHP. The application of the methodology has been demonstrated using an illustrative case study; the comparison of the results with that of previous study illustrates the efficacy and practicality of the development methodology. This work will be beneficial for land-use planning.