Predicting impacts of climate variability on Banj oak (Quercus leucotrichophoraA. Camus) forests: understanding future implications for Central Himalayas

Climate variability is one of the most powerful drivers that have resulted in loss of forest ecosystems.Quercus leucotrichophora(A. Camus) (Banj oak) is a keystone tree in moist temperate forests of Central Himalayas. Banj oak forests have high biodiversity, soil organic matter, and water holding capacity that supports human well-being. Climate variability coupled with anthropogenic pressure has affected the regeneration and succession patterns in these forests. Conservation of Banj oak is a socio-ecological challenge and will require an interdisciplinary approach. In the present study, we have assessed the impact of climate variability on the ecological niche ofQ. leucotrichophorausing the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt). The occurrence locations of the tree species were obtained from primary survey and published works (1984 to 2018). CMIP5 (Couple Model Inter-comparison Project)-derived bioclimatic variables were used as predictor variables in the modeling. The predictions were done following four IPCC RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios for the future periods of 2050 and 2070. Our results show that the estimated potential habitats of theQ. leucotrichophoraare likely to decline by 84-99%. Shift of the species from its present habitats due to climate variability reflects unusual patterns and demands climate adaptive management for forest landscape restoration (FLR) through active community involvement in the region. The study provides information about the suitable niches for the species of Banj oak forests and addresses the growing concern of spring-shed rejuvenation using climate adaptive FLR in Central Himalayas.