期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
卷 287, 期 1936, 页码 -出版社
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.1526
关键词
temperature; thermal ecology; parasite; metabolic theory of ecology; Daphnia magna; Ordospora colligata
资金
- Ontario Graduate Scholarship
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- Institutional Strategic Fund from theWellcome Trust
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) [RGPIN-2016-06301]
- Canada Foundation for Innovation (CFI) John R. Evans Leaders Fund [35341]
- Ministry of Research, Innovation and Sciences (MRIS) Ontario Research Fund
Predicting the effects of seasonality and climate change on the emergence and spread of infectious disease remains difficult, in part because of poorly understood connections between warming and the mechanisms driving disease. Trait-based mechanistic models combined with thermal performance curves arising from the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) have been highlighted as a promising approach going forward; however, this framework has not been tested under controlled experimental conditions that isolate the role of gradual temporal warming on disease dynamics and emergence. Here, we provide experimental evidence that a slowly warming host-parasite system can be pushed through a critical transition into an epidemic state. We then show that a trait-based mechanistic model with MTE functional forms can predict the critical temperature for disease emergence, subsequent disease dynamics through time and final infection prevalence in an experimentally warmed system ofDaphniaand a microsporidian parasite. Our results serve as a proof of principle that trait-based mechanistic models using MTE subfunctions can predict warming-induced disease emergence in data-rich systems-a critical step towards generalizing the approach to other systems.
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