期刊
PLOS ONE
卷 15, 期 10, 页码 -出版社
PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240775
关键词
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资金
- UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC) IAA exploration award
- EPSRC [EP/R511729/1]
- Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Centre for Doctoral Training in Quantification and Management of Risk and Uncertainty in Complex Systems and Environments [EP/L015927/1]
- UK Medical Research Council (MRC) Treatment According to Response in Giant cEll arTeritis (TARGET) [MR/N011775/1]
- EPSRC programme grant Digital twins for improved dynamic design [EP/R006768/1]
- EPSRC [EP/R006768/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- MRC [MR/N011775/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Testing is viewed as a critical aspect of any strategy to tackle epidemics. Much of the dialogue around testing has concentrated on how countries can scale up capacity, but the uncertainty in testing has not received nearly as much attention beyond asking if a test is accurate enough to be used. Even for highly accurate tests, false positives and false negatives will accumulate as mass testing strategies are employed under pressure, and these misdiagnoses could have major implications on the ability of governments to suppress the virus. The present analysis uses a modified SIR model to understand the implication and magnitude of misdiagnosis in the context of ending lockdown measures. The results indicate that increased testing capacity alone will not provide a solution to lockdown measures. The progression of the epidemic and peak infections is shown to depend heavily on test characteristics, test targeting, and prevalence of the infection. Antibody based immunity passports are rejected as a solution to ending lockdown, as they can put the population at risk if poorly targeted. Similarly, mass screening for active viral infection may only be beneficial if it can be sufficiently well targeted, otherwise reliance on this approach for protection of the population can again put them at risk. A well targeted active viral test combined with a slow release rate is a viable strategy for continuous suppression of the virus.
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