期刊
PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
卷 77, 期 3, 页码 1361-1370出版社
JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD
DOI: 10.1002/ps.6151
关键词
bioclimatic model; climatic suitability; process modelling; CLIMEX; niche model
资金
- United Kingdom (Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office)
- China (Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs)
- Australia (Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research)
- Canada (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)
- Netherlands (Directorate-General for International Cooperation-DGIS)
- Switzerland (Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation)
- Ireland (Irish Aid, International Fund for Agricultural Development-IFAD)
- Bogor Agricultural University (Institut Pertanian Bogor)
By modeling the potential distribution of the papaya mealybug and combining the model with spatial data on irrigation and cropping patterns, the study identified areas at high risk of invasion by the pest, providing valuable information for pest control and management strategies.
BACKGROUND The papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus, is a highly polyphagous invasive pest that affects more than 200 plants, many of which are of economic importance. We modelled the potential distribution of P. marginatus using CLIMEX, a process-oriented, climate-based niche model. We combined this model with spatial data on irrigation and cropping patterns to increase the real-world applicability of the model. RESULTS The resulting model agreed with known distribution points for this pest and with broad areas where P. marginatus has been reported, but for which no GPS data were available. Our model highlights the potential expansion of P. marginatus into novel areas in Central and East Africa, as well as further expansion in Central America and Asia, as these areas are highly climatically suitable, and have large expanses of suitable crop hosts. It also highlights areas, such as the central and eastern states of the USA as well as the western provinces of China, that are suitable for seasonal invasions of P. marginatus. CONCLUSION Our results offer refined resolution on areas with high potential for invasion by P. marginatus.
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