Excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Germany

Objectives: The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany lasted from week 10 to 23 in 2020. The aim is to provide estimates of excess mortality in Germany during this time. Methods: We analyzed age-specific numbers of deaths per week from 2016 to week 26 in 2020. We used weekly mean numbers of deaths of 2016-2019 to estimate expected weekly numbers for 2020. We estimated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals. Results: During the first wave observed numbers of deaths were higher than expected for age groups 6069, 80-89, and 90+. The age group 70-79 years did not show excess mortality. The net excess number of deaths for weeks 10-23 was +8,071. The overall SMR was 1.03 (95%CI 1.03-1 .04). The largest increase occurred among people aged 80-89 and 90+ (SMR= 1.08 and SMR= 1.09). A sensitivity analysis that accounts for demographic changes revealed an overall SMR of 0.98 (95%CI 0.98-0.99) and a deficit of 4,926 deaths for week 10-23, 2020. Conclusions: The excess mortality existed for two months. The favorable course of the first wave may be explained by a younger age at infection at the beginning of the pandemic, lower contact rates, and a more efficient pandemic management. (C) 2020 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.