期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 47, 期 21, 页码 -出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL090328
关键词
seasonal; prediction; stratosphere; winter; polar vortex; multimodel
资金
- Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) via the SCENARIO Doctoral Training Partnership [NE/L002566/1]
- Federally Appropriated Funds
- Academy of Finland [286298]
- Academy of Finland (AKA) [286298, 286298] Funding Source: Academy of Finland (AKA)
The winter of 2019-2020 was dominated by an extremely strong stratospheric polar vortex and positive tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO). Here, we analyze forecasts from six different prediction systems contributing to the C3S seasonal forecast database. Most performed very strongly, with consistently high skill for January-March 2020 from forecasts launched through October-December 2019. Although the magnitude of the anomalies was underestimated, the performance of most prediction systems was extremely high for a positive AO winter relative to the common hindcast climate. Ensemble members which better predicted the extremely strong stratospheric vortex better predicted the extreme tropospheric state. We find a significant relationship between forecasts of the anomalous midlatitude tropospheric wave pattern in early winter, which destructively interfered with the climatological stationary waves and the strength of the stratospheric vortex later in the winter. Our results demonstrate a strong interdependence between the accuracy of stratospheric vortex and AO forecasts.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据