期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 47, 期 17, 页码 -出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL089096
关键词
atmospheric rivers; climate change; western United States; hydroclimate; extremes; water resources
资金
- Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program (RGCM) the Calibrated and Systematic Characterization, Attribution and Detection of Extremes (CASCADE) Scienc [DE-AC02-05CH11231]
- U.S. Department of Energy Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program (RGCM) An Integrated Evaluation of the Simulated Hydroclimate System of the Continental US project [DE-SC0016605]
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can be a boon and bane to water resource managers as they have the ability to replenish water reserves, but they can also generate million-to-billion-dollar flood damages. To investigate how anthropogenic climate change may influence AR characteristics in the coastal western United States by end century, we employ a suite of novel tools such as variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM), the TempestExtremes AR detection algorithm, and the Ralph, Rutz, et al. (2019, ) AR category scale. We show that end-century ARs primarily shift from being mostly or primarily beneficial to mostly or primarily hazardous with a concomitant sharpening and intensification of winter season precipitation totals. Changes in precipitation totals are due to a significant increase in AR (+260%) rather than non-AR (+7%) precipitation, largely through increases in the most intense category of AR events and a decrease in the interval between landfalling ARs.
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