Investigating the tipping point of crop productivity induced by changing climatic variables

South Asia is comprised of several countries, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and Sri Lanka, all ranked highly at risk of climatic variability. The region's susceptibility to climate change can be attributed to both its spatial and inherent characteristics. Considering the countries' high dependence on agricultural products, to support their economies and growing populations, it is vital to measure the factors impacting crop productivity. This study quantifies the change in temperature and precipitation, coupled with their respective effects on the productivity of three major crops, wheat, rice and cotton, within two of Pakistan's largest provinces: Punjab and Sindh. Based on the collated data, multivariate regression analysis is conducted. Moreover, highly vulnerable areas to climate change have been identified under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, until the end of this century. Results reveal that there is a substantial increasing trend in temperature, whereas precipitation has high inter-annual variability. Regression outcomes, based on fixed/random effects models, indicate that temperature above threshold values of 24.3 degrees C, 33.0 degrees C and 32.0 degrees C for wheat, rice and cotton, respectively, negatively impacts productivity (statistically significant). Precipitation is statistically insignificant in explaining its role in crop productivity. Overall, the region is heading towards temperature and threshold exceedances at an alarming rate, which will impact the overall availability of suitable crop-growing areas.

Automated summary

This study aims to quantify the impact of climate change on crop productivity in South Asia, particularly on wheat, rice, and cotton. The results show a significant increasing trend in temperature and high inter-annual variability in precipitation. When temperature exceeds specific threshold values, it significantly reduces crop productivity. Furthermore, the region is rapidly heading towards exceeding temperature and threshold values at an alarming rate.