期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 15, 期 10, 页码 -出版社
IOP PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb397
关键词
climate change; global warming; multimodel ensemble mean; ETCCDI
资金
- U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) Program [DE-SC0019459]
- National Science Foundation (NSF) [IA 1844590]
- National Center for Atmospheric Research - NSF [1947282]
- DOE by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [DE-AC52-07NA227344]
- University of Georgia's Office of Research
- CMIP6
- ESGF
- Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences
- Directorate For Geosciences [1947282] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitation extremes over the United States (US). Under a projected fossil-fuel based economic (i.e.high greenhouse gas emissions) scenario, our results show consistent changes in the seasonal patterns for many precipitation extremes by the end of the 21st century. We find a robust projected increase in the intensity of winter precipitation across models, with less agreement during the summer. Similarly, a robust projected amplification of heavy precipitation over the northern US is evident in winter, while intermodel spread is prevalent in summer projections. Specifically, the heavy and very heavy winter precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm) exhibit larger increases compared to other aspects of precipitation. Additionally, changes in dry extremes (e.g. consecutive dry days) are found to differ significantly across various subregions and seasons. Overall, our results suggest that the US may suffer more natural disasters such as floods and droughts in the future.
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