Potential of Straw for Energy Purposes in Poland-Forecasts Based on Trend and Causal Models

The mitigation of climate change poses a major challenge to the legal framework which aims to stimulate the development of renewable energy sources. The European Union's direction for the use of renewable energy is distributed generation and an increased use of by-products and organic waste, especially in the production of next-generation biofuels. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the production potential of straw in Poland and the possibility of its use for energy purposes, including a forecast for 2030, on the assumption that the management of this resource is in accordance with the provisions of the Polish Code for Good Agriculture Practice. In Poland, in the years 1999-2018, the average annual surplus of straw harvested over agricultural consumption equalled 12.5 million tons (4.2 Mtoe). Its largest surpluses were in the Dolnoslaskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Lubelskie, Wielkopolskie, and Zachodniopomorskie voivodeships (NUTS2). Based on the developed panel models, forecasts for straw surpluses in Poland are presented in three perspectives: realistic, pessimistic, and optimistic. The forecasts show regional differentiation until 2030. Each of the three perspectives indicate a slow increase in these surpluses, and depending on the adopted version, it will range from 10.6% to 21.9%.