Wood Turtle (Glyptemys insculpta) nest protection reduces depredation and increases success, but annual variation influences its effectiveness

Habitat loss is the leading cause of species extinctions and is especially detrimental to habitat specialists. Freshwater turtles require specific habitat types at different points in their life cycle; notably, the loss of nesting habitat has led to increased nest depredation and adult mortality. In response, conservationists have implemented nest protection and habitat restoration programs to recover declining populations. Although assumed to increase nest survival, effectiveness of these methods has not been rigorously quantified. We located Wood Turtle (Glyptemys insculpta (Le Conte, 1830)) nests in Wisconsin (USA) and conducted two analyses - logistic regression and logistic exposure - to investigate the influence of management actions and environmental factors on nest survival. The depredation rate decreased by 47% for protected nests and declined as nests aged; the success rate increased by 28% for protected nests and increased for nests in areas with fewer roads. We found high annual variation in success, and although weather variables were not predictive, likely due to their coarse scale, we posit that this inter-annual variation was driven by variation in weather conditions. Our results suggest that nest protection is effective at increasing nest survival, but future efforts should span multiple years to account for the effects of annual variation in environmental conditions.