Correlative serum biomarker analyses in the phase 2 trial of lenvatinib-plus-everolimus in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma

Background No biomarkers have been established to predict treatment efficacy in renal cell carcinoma (RCC). In an exploratory retrospective analysis of a Phase 2 study, we constructed composite biomarker scores (CBSs) to predict progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with metastatic RCC randomised to receive lenvatinib-plus-everolimus. Methods Of 40 biomarkers tested, the 5 most strongly associated with PFS (HGF, MIG, IL-18BP, IL-18, ANG-2) or OS (TIMP-1, M-CSF, IL-18BP, ANG-2, VEGF) were used to make a 5-factor PFS-CBS or OS-CBS, respectively. A 2-factor CBS was generated with biomarkers common to PFS-CBS and OS-CBS. Patients were divided into groups accordingly (5-factor-CBS high: 3-5, CBS-low: 0-2; 2-factor-CBS high: 1-2, CBS-low: 0). Results PFS/OS with lenvatinib-plus-everolimus were significantly longer in the 5-factor CBS-high group versus the CBS-low group (P = 0.0022/P < 0.0001, respectively). In the CBS-high group, PFS/OS were significantly longer with lenvatinib-plus-everolimus versus everolimus (P < 0.001/P = 0.0079, respectively); PFS was also significantly longer with lenvatinib-plus-everolimus versus lenvatinib (P = 0.0046). The 5-factor-CBS had a predictive role in PFS and OS after multivariate analysis. Similar trends were observed with the 2-factor-CBS for PFS (i.e., lenvatinib-plus-everolimus versus everolimus). Conclusions The 5-factor CBS may identify patients with metastatic RCC who would benefit from lenvatinib-plus-everolimus versus everolimus; additional validation is required.

Automated summary

No biomarkers have been established to predict treatment efficacy in renal cell carcinoma (RCC). In an exploratory analysis, composite biomarker scores (CBSs) were constructed and found to significantly predict progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with metastatic RCC receiving lenvatinib-plus-everolimus treatment. The 5-factor CBS may identify patients who would benefit from this treatment approach, but further validation is needed.